Global warming: Death in the deep-freeze

As global warming melts the world's ice sheets, rising sea levels are not the only danger. Viruses hidden for thousands of years may thaw and escape - and we will have no resistance to them. Kate Ravilious reports

Published: 28 September 2005

Last week, the latest study to track global warming revealed that Alaska's snowless season is lengthening. As the world warms and ice-sheets and glaciers begin to melt, most of us worry about how the earth will respond and what kind of impact climate change will have. Will flooding become a regular feature, or is the land going to become parched? Are hurricanes and typhoons going to spring up in places they have never visited before? Is the rising sea level going to swallow some of the world's most fertile farmland, along with millions of homes?

All of these are valid concerns, but now it turns out that the impact of global warming could be worse than we first imagined. Ice sheets are mostly frozen water, but during the freezing process they can also incorporate organisms such as fungi, bacteria and viruses. Some scientists believe that climate change could unleash ancient illnesses as ice sheets drip away and bacteria and viruses defrost. Illnesses we thought we had eradicated, like polio, could reappear, while common viruses like human influenza could have a devastating effect if melting glaciers release a bygone strain to which we have no resistance. What is more, new species unknown to science may re-emerge. And it is not just humans who are at risk: animals, plants and marine creatures could also suffer as ancient microbes thaw out.

In 1999, Scott Rogers from Bowling Green State University in Ohio and his colleagues reported finding the tomato mosaic tobamovirus (ToMV) in 17 different ice-core sections at two locations deep inside the Greenland ice pack. Gentle defrosting in the lab revealed that this common plant pathogen had survived being entombed in ice for 140,000 years. "ToMV belongs to a family of viruses with a particularly tough protein coat, which helps it to survive in these extreme environments," says Rogers.

Since then Rogers has found many other microbes in ice samples from Greenland, Antarctica, and Siberia. And this has turned out to be just the tip of the microbial iceberg. Over the last 10 years biologists have discovered bacteria, fungi, viruses, algae and yeast hibernating under as much as 4km of solid ice, in locations all over the world.

Most recently Rogers and his colleagues found the human influenza virus in one-year-old Siberian lake ice. "The influenza virus isn't quite as hardy as ToMV, but this finding showed that it is capable of surviving in ice," says Rogers. This particular strain of influenza had only hibernated for one year and doesn't present much of a threat to humans, but it shows that there is potential for a human virus to survive the freezing process for much longer. Imagine if older, more vicious strains, such as the virus responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed somewhere between 20 and 40 million people in 1918 - 1919, were to re-emerge.

Not all scientists are convinced by these viral discoveries, and some argue that they are more likely to have arrived in the ice via contamination during the drilling process. However, Rogers is confident that this is not the case. "We use a chemical called sodium hypochlorite to decontaminate the outer ice surface, which is then followed by extraction or melting of an interior section of the core," he explains.

So if these viruses have been huddled in the ice for thousands of years, how did they get there in the first place? According to Rogers one very effective way for viruses to travel the world is to hitch a ride in the guts of migrating birds. "The Siberian lake ice where we found the human influenza virus is on a bird migration route. This is the most likely way that the virus arrived," he says. Other modes of transport could include riding on aquatic mammals such as seals, clinging to grains of dust, or water transport via rivers and ocean currents.

"Human beings have been more prevalent in northern areas for a long time and so human viruses are more likely to have been frozen into Northern Hemisphere ice sheets," says Dany Shoham, one of Rogers' colleagues from Bar-Ilan University in Israel. Humans have lived close to glaciers in the European Alps, frozen fjords in Scandinavia and frosty Siberian lakes for thousands of years, making it an easy hop for viruses looking for a place to hibernate for a while. None the less, Shoham says that this doesn't mean the ice sheets of the Southern Hemisphere don't contain viruses.

Thankfully, not all viruses will remain viable after thawing out from hibernation in an ice sheet. "We routinely keep viruses at minus 80C when we want to store them in the lab, so viruses can certainly survive freezing, but they are often fragile to processes such as freeze-thaw," explains Geoffrey Smith, head of the virology department at Imperial College London. In the lab it is possible to defrost viruses gently, but outside they are subject to climatic extremes. Only viruses that contain the tough protein coat, like ToMV, are likely to be able to retain all the information they need while being repeatedly frozen and defrosted. This rules out plenty of human viruses, but still leaves a few very nasty options including smallpox, polio, hepatitis A and, of course, influenza.

Shoham believes that the influenza virus is the most likely to emerge from the freeze/thaw process in a fit enough state to re-infect humans. "It has the properties that would allow it to survive the ice and the ability to transfer between animals and humans once it is out," he says. What is more, Shoham contends that an ancient version of human influenza could be a very potent weapon. "Ancient viruses are more dangerous because the natural herd immunity is reduced over time. After just one or two generations the natural herd immunity is eliminated," he says. Water-borne viruses, such as hepatitis A and polio, are less of a threat because they rely on water currents to reach their victims.

One worrying scenario would be the creation of a super virus via the recombination of ancient and modern strains. "If only one or two genes from an ancient influenza virus were to interchange with the modern avian influenza, it could become contagious and generate a new pandemic," says Shoham.

By hiding in the deep freeze for a few thousand years, viruses could be avoiding unfavourable conditions on the earth's surface, such as hosts with a strong immunity. Rogers and his colleagues think that these icy holidays may even be a deliberate part of viral evolution. Equally, the same argument could mean that it is harder for a virus to slot back into the world once it has been defrosted. "Evolutionary change over time may mean that an emerging ancient virus finds it difficult to adopt a niche," says Shoham.

If viruses do hide away in ice-sheets periodically, then there should be evidence of pandemics occurring during the earth's warmer periods in the past.

"It may be possible to relate historical extinction events with outbreaks of specific pathogens like influenza and cholera," says Rogers. As yet no research team has managed to prove this link, but it is something that Rogers and his colleagues are keen to investigate further.

So how much of a risk do these frozen viruses really represent? Without having any definite evidence that viruses are able to complete the full freeze-thaw cycle and go on to re-infect, it is hard to say. Some scientists are not too concerned, while others think it is worth looking into.

"It is certainly conceivable that viruses can survive frozen for thousands of years, but it is not top of the list of my worries. We have enough to think about with the number of dangerous viruses at high concentration around today," says Geoffrey Smith.

Meanwhile, Dany Shoham believes that the potential consequences are too dire to be ignored, but agrees that there is little we can do to protect ourselves.

"The likelihood of infection from an ancient virus is, in general, low, but once it does take place the impact will be enormous," he says. "None the less, this freezing mechanism is so complex, vague and unpredictable that there is really nothing we can do to protect ourselves."

Perhaps the only grain of comfort is that this won't be the first time that viruses have emerged from the ice. We must have survived such an event before.

Last week, the latest study to track global warming revealed that Alaska's snowless season is lengthening. As the world warms and ice-sheets and glaciers begin to melt, most of us worry about how the earth will respond and what kind of impact climate change will have. Will flooding become a regular feature, or is the land going to become parched? Are hurricanes and typhoons going to spring up in places they have never visited before? Is the rising sea level going to swallow some of the world's most fertile farmland, along with millions of homes?

All of these are valid concerns, but now it turns out that the impact of global warming could be worse than we first imagined. Ice sheets are mostly frozen water, but during the freezing process they can also incorporate organisms such as fungi, bacteria and viruses. Some scientists believe that climate change could unleash ancient illnesses as ice sheets drip away and bacteria and viruses defrost. Illnesses we thought we had eradicated, like polio, could reappear, while common viruses like human influenza could have a devastating effect if melting glaciers release a bygone strain to which we have no resistance. What is more, new species unknown to science may re-emerge. And it is not just humans who are at risk: animals, plants and marine creatures could also suffer as ancient microbes thaw out.

In 1999, Scott Rogers from Bowling Green State University in Ohio and his colleagues reported finding the tomato mosaic tobamovirus (ToMV) in 17 different ice-core sections at two locations deep inside the Greenland ice pack. Gentle defrosting in the lab revealed that this common plant pathogen had survived being entombed in ice for 140,000 years. "ToMV belongs to a family of viruses with a particularly tough protein coat, which helps it to survive in these extreme environments," says Rogers.

Since then Rogers has found many other microbes in ice samples from Greenland, Antarctica, and Siberia. And this has turned out to be just the tip of the microbial iceberg. Over the last 10 years biologists have discovered bacteria, fungi, viruses, algae and yeast hibernating under as much as 4km of solid ice, in locations all over the world.

Most recently Rogers and his colleagues found the human influenza virus in one-year-old Siberian lake ice. "The influenza virus isn't quite as hardy as ToMV, but this finding showed that it is capable of surviving in ice," says Rogers. This particular strain of influenza had only hibernated for one year and doesn't present much of a threat to humans, but it shows that there is potential for a human virus to survive the freezing process for much longer. Imagine if older, more vicious strains, such as the virus responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic, which killed somewhere between 20 and 40 million people in 1918 - 1919, were to re-emerge.

Not all scientists are convinced by these viral discoveries, and some argue that they are more likely to have arrived in the ice via contamination during the drilling process. However, Rogers is confident that this is not the case. "We use a chemical called sodium hypochlorite to decontaminate the outer ice surface, which is then followed by extraction or melting of an interior section of the core," he explains.

So if these viruses have been huddled in the ice for thousands of years, how did they get there in the first place? According to Rogers one very effective way for viruses to travel the world is to hitch a ride in the guts of migrating birds. "The Siberian lake ice where we found the human influenza virus is on a bird migration route. This is the most likely way that the virus arrived," he says. Other modes of transport could include riding on aquatic mammals such as seals, clinging to grains of dust, or water transport via rivers and ocean currents.

"Human beings have been more prevalent in northern areas for a long time and so human viruses are more likely to have been frozen into Northern Hemisphere ice sheets," says Dany Shoham, one of Rogers' colleagues from Bar-Ilan University in Israel. Humans have lived close to glaciers in the European Alps, frozen fjords in Scandinavia and frosty Siberian lakes for thousands of years, making it an easy hop for viruses looking for a place to hibernate for a while. None the less, Shoham says that this doesn't mean the ice sheets of the Southern Hemisphere don't contain viruses.

Thankfully, not all viruses will remain viable after thawing out from hibernation in an ice sheet. "We routinely keep viruses at minus 80C when we want to store them in the lab, so viruses can certainly survive freezing, but they are often fragile to processes such as freeze-thaw," explains Geoffrey Smith, head of the virology department at Imperial College London. In the lab it is possible to defrost viruses gently, but outside they are subject to climatic extremes. Only viruses that contain the tough protein coat, like ToMV, are likely to be able to retain all the information they need while being repeatedly frozen and defrosted. This rules out plenty of human viruses, but still leaves a few very nasty options including smallpox, polio, hepatitis A and, of course, influenza.

Shoham believes that the influenza virus is the most likely to emerge from the freeze/thaw process in a fit enough state to re-infect humans. "It has the properties that would allow it to survive the ice and the ability to transfer between animals and humans once it is out," he says. What is more, Shoham contends that an ancient version of human influenza could be a very potent weapon. "Ancient viruses are more dangerous because the natural herd immunity is reduced over time. After just one or two generations the natural herd immunity is eliminated," he says. Water-borne viruses, such as hepatitis A and polio, are less of a threat because they rely on water currents to reach their victims.

One worrying scenario would be the creation of a super virus via the recombination of ancient and modern strains. "If only one or two genes from an ancient influenza virus were to interchange with the modern avian influenza, it could become contagious and generate a new pandemic," says Shoham.

By hiding in the deep freeze for a few thousand years, viruses could be avoiding unfavourable conditions on the earth's surface, such as hosts with a strong immunity. Rogers and his colleagues think that these icy holidays may even be a deliberate part of viral evolution. Equally, the same argument could mean that it is harder for a virus to slot back into the world once it has been defrosted. "Evolutionary change over time may mean that an emerging ancient virus finds it difficult to adopt a niche," says Shoham.

If viruses do hide away in ice-sheets periodically, then there should be evidence of pandemics occurring during the earth's warmer periods in the past.

"It may be possible to relate historical extinction events with outbreaks of specific pathogens like influenza and cholera," says Rogers. As yet no research team has managed to prove this link, but it is something that Rogers and his colleagues are keen to investigate further.

So how much of a risk do these frozen viruses really represent? Without having any definite evidence that viruses are able to complete the full freeze-thaw cycle and go on to re-infect, it is hard to say. Some scientists are not too concerned, while others think it is worth looking into.

"It is certainly conceivable that viruses can survive frozen for thousands of years, but it is not top of the list of my worries. We have enough to think about with the number of dangerous viruses at high concentration around today," says Geoffrey Smith.

Meanwhile, Dany Shoham believes that the potential consequences are too dire to be ignored, but agrees that there is little we can do to protect ourselves.

"The likelihood of infection from an ancient virus is, in general, low, but once it does take place the impact will be enormous," he says. "None the less, this freezing mechanism is so complex, vague and unpredictable that there is really nothing we can do to protect ourselves."

Perhaps the only grain of comfort is that this won't be the first time that viruses have emerged from the ice. We must have survived such an event before.

The Independent.

Sea ice melts to record low because of global warming

By Steve Connor, Science Editor

Published: 29 September 2005

Arctic sea ice has melted to a record low this month, prompting fears that the entire polar ice cap may disappear within decades.

Satellite images of the northern hemisphere's floating sea ice show that the area of ocean covered by the ice during this month was the lowest ever observed by scientists.

It is the fourth consecutive summer that the area covered by the sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk below even the long-term decline, which began at least as far back as the late 1970s.

A gradual loss of sea ice has taken place for a quarter of a century but scientists believe they may be witnessing an acceleration in the melting process because of climate change and a process of "positive feedback" causing a vicious cycle of melting and warming.

The latest figures were released yesterday by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) and the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University, which described the loss of September ice as a "stunning reduction".

As predicted by The Independent, the sea ice coverage this month fell about 20 per cent below the long-term average.

For the past four years, the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic has been equivalent to an area of 500,000 square miles - roughly twice the size of Texas or Iraq.

Ted Scambos, the Colorado University scientist who led the study, said a reasonable explanation for the dramatic loss of sea ice is climate change.

"Since the 1990s, the melting and retreat trends are accelerating and the one common thread is that the Arctic temperatures over the ice, ocean and surrounding land have increased in recent decades," Dr Scambos said.

"Normally a summer low is followed by a rebound back to more normal levels but this has not occurred for the past four summers," said Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

"With four consecutive years of low summer ice extent, confidence is strengthening that a long-term decline is under way," Dr Meier said.

"Having four years in a row with such low ice extents has never been seen before in the satellite record. It clearly indicates a downward trend, not just a short-term anomaly," he said.

Mark Serreze said that the loss of Arctic sea ice is likely to make global warming worse because more ocean is exposed to the warming effects of the sun.

"It's likely that we will find this to be the case in coming decades, because of something called a positive feedback loop, in which an initial warming sets in motion a chain of events that causes further warming. The Arctic is very susceptible to this," Dr Serreze said. "Sea ice is white and, therefore, reflects a lot of the sun's energy back into space, whereas dark, open ocean absorbs a lot more energy ... So, a warming Arctic leads the planet to absorb more energy. That, in turn, could cause global average temperatures to rise still more," he said.

Average surface temperatures in the Arctic this summer were between 2C and 3C warmer than average across the Arctic Ocean.

The famous north-west passage through the Canadian Arctic from Europe to Asia was largely free of ice except for a 60-mile swath of scattered ice floes.

The north-east passage which runs north of Russian Siberia was completely free of ice for the period 15 August to 28 September, the Snow and Ice Data Centre said.

"The sea-ice cover seems to be rapidly changing and the best explanation for this is rising temperatures," Dr Serreze said. "Something has fundamentally changed here, and the best answer is warming," he said.

Sea ice in the Arctic expands and recedes each winter and summer but scientists found for the first time that a natural rebound did not occur last winter and that the start of the melting period in spring occurs earlier than average.

It has meant that ice that has remained stable for many years - so called multiyear ice - has begun to melt, according to the scientists' findings.

Arctic sea ice has melted to a record low this month, prompting fears that the entire polar ice cap may disappear within decades.

Satellite images of the northern hemisphere's floating sea ice show that the area of ocean covered by the ice during this month was the lowest ever observed by scientists.

It is the fourth consecutive summer that the area covered by the sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk below even the long-term decline, which began at least as far back as the late 1970s.

A gradual loss of sea ice has taken place for a quarter of a century but scientists believe they may be witnessing an acceleration in the melting process because of climate change and a process of "positive feedback" causing a vicious cycle of melting and warming.

The latest figures were released yesterday by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) and the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University, which described the loss of September ice as a "stunning reduction".

As predicted by The Independent, the sea ice coverage this month fell about 20 per cent below the long-term average.

For the past four years, the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic has been equivalent to an area of 500,000 square miles - roughly twice the size of Texas or Iraq.

Ted Scambos, the Colorado University scientist who led the study, said a reasonable explanation for the dramatic loss of sea ice is climate change.

"Since the 1990s, the melting and retreat trends are accelerating and the one common thread is that the Arctic temperatures over the ice, ocean and surrounding land have increased in recent decades," Dr Scambos said.

"Normally a summer low is followed by a rebound back to more normal levels but this has not occurred for the past four summers," said Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

"With four consecutive years of low summer ice extent, confidence is strengthening that a long-term decline is under way," Dr Meier said.

"Having four years in a row with such low ice extents has never been seen before in the satellite record. It clearly indicates a downward trend, not just a short-term anomaly," he said.

Mark Serreze said that the loss of Arctic sea ice is likely to make global warming worse because more ocean is exposed to the warming effects of the sun.

"It's likely that we will find this to be the case in coming decades, because of something called a positive feedback loop, in which an initial warming sets in motion a chain of events that causes further warming. The Arctic is very susceptible to this," Dr Serreze said. "Sea ice is white and, therefore, reflects a lot of the sun's energy back into space, whereas dark, open ocean absorbs a lot more energy ... So, a warming Arctic leads the planet to absorb more energy. That, in turn, could cause global average temperatures to rise still more," he said.

Average surface temperatures in the Arctic this summer were between 2C and 3C warmer than average across the Arctic Ocean.

The famous north-west passage through the Canadian Arctic from Europe to Asia was largely free of ice except for a 60-mile swath of scattered ice floes.

The north-east passage which runs north of Russian Siberia was completely free of ice for the period 15 August to 28 September, the Snow and Ice Data Centre said.

"The sea-ice cover seems to be rapidly changing and the best explanation for this is rising temperatures," Dr Serreze said. "Something has fundamentally changed here, and the best answer is warming," he said.

Sea ice in the Arctic expands and recedes each winter and summer but scientists found for the first time that a natural rebound did not occur last winter and that the start of the melting period in spring occurs earlier than average.

It has meant that ice that has remained stable for many years - so called multiyear ice - has begun to melt, according to the scientists' findings.

The Independent.

Blair falls into line with Bush view on global warming

By Geoffrey Lean and Christopher Silvester

Published: 25 September 2005

Tony Blair has undermined the agreement he masterminded at the Gleneagles Summit

Tony Blair has undermined the agreement he masterminded at the Gleneagles Summit

Tony Blair has admitted that he is changing his views on combating global warming to mirror those of President Bush - and oppose negotiating international treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol.

His admission, which has outraged environmentalists on both sides of the Atlantic, flies in the face of his promises made in the past two years and undermines the agreement he masterminded at this summer's Gleneagles Summit. And it endangers talks that opened in Ottawa this weekend on a new treaty to combat climate change.

The U-turn will inevitably bring accusations that he has, once again, sold out to Mr Bush, just at the time that the US President is coming under unprecedented pressure to change his policy in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Last week the UK Government's chief scientific advisor, Sir David King, said that global warming might have increased their severity.

Over the past two years Mr Blair has consistently claimed global leadership in tackling what he described as "long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community" and has stressed that it "can only properly be addressed through international agreements". President Bush repeatedly expressed anger at his position.

Sharing a platform with the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, in New York this month, Mr Blair confessed: "Probably I'm changing my thinking about this", adding that he hoped the world's nations would "not negotiate international treaties".

This contradicts his assertion in a speech a year ago - which drew a private rebuke from the Bush administration - that "a problem that is global in cause and scope can only be fully addressed through international agreement".

It also denies what his ministers claimed to be his main achievement on global warming at Gleneagles. He had succeeded in getting all the leaders except Mr Bush to sign up to negotiating a successor to the Kyoto treaty, and in arranging a meeting between the G8 and leading developing countries to discuss it.

But instead of endorsing agreed limits on the pollution that causes climate change, Mr Blair told this month's meeting at the Clinton Global Initiative that he was putting his faith in "developing science and technology" - precisely Mr Bush's position.

He justified his change of heart by saying that countries would not negotiate environmental treaties that cut their growth or consumption - another of the President's main contentions. But in another speech last April he said it was "quite false" to suppose that environmental protection would inhibit growth.

Last night, Tony Juniper, executive director of Friends of the Earth, called the Prime Minister's volte-face "unbelievable": "Having failed to practise what he preaches, he is now changing his preaching to match his practice."

Tony Blair has admitted that he is changing his views on combating global warming to mirror those of President Bush - and oppose negotiating international treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol.

His admission, which has outraged environmentalists on both sides of the Atlantic, flies in the face of his promises made in the past two years and undermines the agreement he masterminded at this summer's Gleneagles Summit. And it endangers talks that opened in Ottawa this weekend on a new treaty to combat climate change.

The U-turn will inevitably bring accusations that he has, once again, sold out to Mr Bush, just at the time that the US President is coming under unprecedented pressure to change his policy in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Last week the UK Government's chief scientific advisor, Sir David King, said that global warming might have increased their severity.

Over the past two years Mr Blair has consistently claimed global leadership in tackling what he described as "long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community" and has stressed that it "can only properly be addressed through international agreements". President Bush repeatedly expressed anger at his position.

Sharing a platform with the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, in New York this month, Mr Blair confessed: "Probably I'm changing my thinking about this", adding that he hoped the world's nations would "not negotiate international treaties".

This contradicts his assertion in a speech a year ago - which drew a private rebuke from the Bush administration - that "a problem that is global in cause and scope can only be fully addressed through international agreement".

It also denies what his ministers claimed to be his main achievement on global warming at Gleneagles. He had succeeded in getting all the leaders except Mr Bush to sign up to negotiating a successor to the Kyoto treaty, and in arranging a meeting between the G8 and leading developing countries to discuss it.

But instead of endorsing agreed limits on the pollution that causes climate change, Mr Blair told this month's meeting at the Clinton Global Initiative that he was putting his faith in "developing science and technology" - precisely Mr Bush's position.

He justified his change of heart by saying that countries would not negotiate environmental treaties that cut their growth or consumption - another of the President's main contentions. But in another speech last April he said it was "quite false" to suppose that environmental protection would inhibit growth.

Last night, Tony Juniper, executive director of Friends of the Earth, called the Prime Minister's volte-face "unbelievable": "Having failed to practise what he preaches, he is now changing his preaching to match his practice."

The Independent.

Global warming 'past the point of no return'

By Steve Connor, Science Editon

Published: 16 September 2005

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting and heating.

The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically.

Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record, dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.

Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has accelerated.

Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.

Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.

Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four years ago.

In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its lowest level in recorded history. Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either 2003 or 2004. This summer has been even worse. The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.

Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic extremes.

"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.

Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005 annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when another record loss is forecast. A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September. "It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to September 2002," Dr Serreze said.

"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold beyond which sea ice will not recover."

The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator of its health. This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at any time in recorded history.

Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres (2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of Australia. However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square miles - 16 per cent below average.

Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average - strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.

As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.

Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this "albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered. "We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the overall heat content increases," he explained.

Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge University.

"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the over-optimistic side," he said.

As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.

"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he said.

Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it from heating up. Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions for the climate, he said. "There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said. "You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big impact on other climate parameters," he said.

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting and heating.

The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically.

Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record, dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.

Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has accelerated.

Scientists are now preparing to report a record loss of Arctic sea ice for September, when the surface area covered by the ice traditionally reaches its minimum extent at the end of the summer melting period.

Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.

Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four years ago.

In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its lowest level in recorded history. Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either 2003 or 2004. This summer has been even worse. The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum for each of the summer months - June, July and now August.

Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September - the traditional minimum extent for each summer - are preparing to announce a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic extremes.

"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice.

Scientists at the data centre are bracing themselves for the 2005 annual minimum, which is expected to be reached in mid-September, when another record loss is forecast. A major announcement is scheduled for 20 September. "It looks like we're going to exceed it or be real close one way or the other. It is probably going to be at least as comparable to September 2002," Dr Serreze said.

"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold beyond which sea ice will not recover."

The extent of the sea ice in September is the most valuable indicator of its health. This year's record melt means that more of the long-term ice formed over many winters - so called multi-year ice - has disappeared than at any time in recorded history.

Sea ice floats on the surface of the Arctic Ocean and its neighbouring seas and normally covers an area of some 7 million square kilometres (2.4 million square miles) during September - about the size of Australia. However, in September 2002, this dwindled to about 2 million square miles - 16 per cent below average.

Sea ice data for August closely mirrors that for September and last month's record low - 18.2 per cent below the monthly average - strongly suggests that this September will see the smallest coverage of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.

As more and more sea ice is lost during the summer, greater expanses of open ocean are exposed to the sun which increases the rate at which heat is absorbed in the Arctic region, Dr Serreze said.

Sea ice reflects up to 80 per cent of sunlight hitting it but this "albedo effect" is mostly lost when the sea is uncovered. "We've exposed all this dark ocean to the sun's heat so that the overall heat content increases," he explained.

Current computer models suggest that the Arctic will be entirely ice-free during summer by the year 2070 but some scientists now believe that even this dire prediction may be over-optimistic, said Professor Peter Wadhams, an Arctic ice specialist at Cambridge University.

"When the ice becomes so thin it breaks up mechanically rather than thermodynamically. So these predictions may well be on the over-optimistic side," he said.

As the sea ice melts, and more of the sun's energy is absorbed by the exposed ocean, a positive feedback is created leading to the loss of yet more ice, Professor Wadhams said.

"If anything we may be underestimating the dangers. The computer models may not take into account collaborative positive feedback," he said.

Sea ice keeps a cap on frigid water, keeping it cold and protecting it from heating up. Losing the sea ice of the Arctic is likely to have major repercussions for the climate, he said. "There could be dramatic changes to the climate of the northern region due to the creation of a vast expanse of open water where there was once effectively land," Professor Wadhams said. "You're essentially changing land into ocean and the creation of a huge area of open ocean where there was once land will have a very big impact on other climate parameters," he said.
The Independent.

The final proof: global warming is a man-made disaster

By Steve Connor, Science Editor in Washington

19 February 2005

Scientists have found the first unequivocal link between man-made greenhouse gases and a dramatic heating of the Earth's oceans. The researchers - many funded by the US government - have seen what they describe as a "stunning" correlation between a rise in ocean temperature over the past 40 years and pollution of the atmosphere.

The study destroys a central argument of global warming sceptics within the Bush administration - that climate change could be a natural phenomenon. It should convince George Bush to drop his objections to the Kyoto treaty on climate change, the scientists say.

Tim Barnett, a marine physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and a leading member of the team, said: "We've got a serious problem. The debate is no longer: 'Is there a global warming signal?' The debate now is what are we going to do about it?"

The findings are crucial because much of the evidence of a warmer world has until now been from air temperatures, but it is the oceans that are the driving force behind the Earth's climate. Dr Barnett said: "Over the past 40 years there has been considerable warming of the planetary system and approximately 90 per cent of that warming has gone directly into the oceans."

He told the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington: "We defined a 'fingerprint' of ocean warming. Each of the oceans warmed differently at different depths and constitutes a fingerprint which you can look for. We had several computer simulations, for instance one for natural variability: could the climate system just do this on its own? The answer was no.

"We looked at the possibility that solar changes or volcanic effects could have caused the warming - not a chance. What just absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming."

America produces a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, yet under President Bush it is one of the few developed nations not to have signed the Kyoto treaty to limit emissions. The President's advisers have argued that the science of global warming is full of uncertainties and change might be a natural phenomenon.

Dr Barnett said that position was untenable because it was now clear from the latest study, which is yet to be published, that man-made greenhouse gases had caused vast amounts of heat to be soaked up by the oceans. "It's a good time for nations that are not part of Kyoto to re-evaluate their positions and see if it would be to their advantage to join," he said.

The study involved scientists from the US Department of Energy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office's Hadley Centre.

They analysed more than 7 million recordings of ocean temperature from around the world, along with about 2 million readings of sea salinity, and compared the rise in temperatures at different depths to predictions made by two computer simulations of global warming.

"Two models, one from here and one from England, got the observed warming almost exactly. In fact we were stunned by the degree of similarity," Dr Barnett said. "The models are right. So when a politician stands up and says 'the uncertainty in all these simulations start to question whether we can believe in these models', that argument is no longer tenable." Typical ocean temperatures have increased since 1960 by between 0.5C and 1C, depending largely on depth. Dr Barnett said: "The real key is the amount of energy that has gone into the oceans. If we could mine the energy that has gone in over the past 40 years we could run the state of California for 200,000 years... It's come from greenhouse warming."

Because the global climate is largely driven by the heat locked up in the oceans, a rise in sea temperatures could have devastating effects for many parts of the world.

Ruth Curry, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said that warming could alter important warm-water currents such as the Gulf Stream, as melting glaciers poured massive volumes of fresh water into the North Atlantic. "These changes are happening and they are expected to amplify. It's a certainty that these changes will put serious strains on the ecosystems of the planet," Dr Curry said.

Saxat ifrån The Independent.

Växthuseffekten.

Så nu när vi har tio år på oss att rädda jorden undan en katastrof, vart skall vi börja och vem tänker lägga första stenen?
Kyotoavtalet verkar inte räcka till.
Det finns ett antal namnlistor att skriva på, här finns en. En artikel om gruppen bakom.

Can Kyoto really save the world?

Bagdadbo som bloggar.

http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/
Hon skriver om sitt liv i Bagdad och om ockupationen. När det finns el dvs ;) .

Oaxaca, Mexiko - motståndet växer när förtrycket hårdnar.

Under det senast halvåret har förtrycket tilltagit mot de sociala rörelserna i delstaten Oaxaca, i södra Mexiko. Detta framförallt efter den 1:a december 2004, då Ulises Ruiz tillhörande partiet PRI tillträde som delstatsguvernör. Fackföreningar, indian-, student-, bonde- och arbetarorganisationer samt indiansamhällen har trakasserats och attackerats av polis, myndigheter och militär.

Många aktivister har fängslats och den paramilitära närvaron på landsbygden har återigen tilltagit. På grund av detta har delstatens opositionella sociala rörelser enats för att sätta hårt mot hårt och få ett slut på den nya guvernörens repressiva politik.

Den 18:e februari anordnas en jättemarsch mot förtrycket och Ulises Ruiz:s politik och för frisläppandet av de politiska fångarna delstatens huvudstad Oaxaca de Juarez.

Oaxaca är den delststat i Mexico som har störst biologisk mångfald och antal ursprungsbefolkning. Men det är också en av landets allra fattigaste delstater med en hög grad av marginalisering.

Delstatens sociala rörelser har genom historien mött på hårt förtryck från delstatens makthavare som sett deras kamp som ett hot mot deras maktcentralisering och samarbetet med den ekonomiska eliten.

Under de senaste 80 åren har förtrycket kanaliserats genom det politiska partiet PRI. Partiet har inte tolererat indian- och bondesamhällenas strävan att själva bruka de lokala naturresurserna för bybefolkningens bästa.

I stället har partiet gynnat de stora företagen och landets politiska och ekonomiska överklass. Förtrycket har ökat kraftigt under de senaste tio åren.

Massmördande delstatsregering

Nedan följer ett urval med några av de otaliga brott mot de mänskliga rättigheterna som begåtts av delstatens regering.

I augusti 1996 avancerade militären i regionen Loxicha och anklagade indianbefolkningen för att tillhöra gerillan EPR. Under de fem följande åren mördades 40 människor och fyra har försvunnit efter att ha förts bort av militär.

Under de första sex åren har över 150 zapotecindianer i regionen fängslats och falskeligen anklagats för att tillhöra gerillan EPR¹. Detta med all säkerhet på grund av att byarnas strävan for självbestämmande hindrade en ökad exploatering av områdets naturrikedomar.

Förtrycket tilltog även i andra delar av Oaxaca och fortsatte under hela 90-talet och in på 2000-talet för att nå sin kulmen i maj 2002 i byn Santiago Xochiltepec i regionen Sierra Sur, en av de fattigaste delarna i hela Mexiko.

Denna dag stoppades 28 obeväpnade småbönder som färdades på ett lastbilsflak av en paramilitärgrupp och tvingades att kliva av flaket for att sedan bli skjutna. Av de 28 bönderna överlevde två, båda med allvarliga skador².

Den 11 augusti samma år attackerade den paramilitära gruppen Antorcha Campesina byn San Isidro Luapa och skadade 38 kvinnor. Två av dessa var gravida och förlorade sina barn, fem andra fördes till fängelse. Alla drabbade byar tillhörde indianorganisationen CIPO-RFM.

Vidare mördade gruppen ytterligare två personer i indiansamhället Santa Catarina Yosonutu tillhörande CIPO-RFM den 13 mars 2004. Samtidigt beslagtogs mer än tusen hektar mark vilken till stor del tillhörde byn. Paramilitära Antorcha Campesina är i grunden en landstäckande social organisation tillhörande och bildat av partiet PRI.

Under 2003 fortsatte förtrycket mot bonde- och indianorganisationerna i delstaten och i oktober drabbades CIPO-RFM återigen av en paramilitär attack, denna gång i byn S:t Maria Yaviche. Resultatet blev nio skadade och en död.

Denna gång tillhörde gärningsmännen den paramilitära gruppen Crocut, även de med anknytningar till PRI³. Under resten av 2003 fortsatte delstatens sociala kämpar att attackeras, bortföras, trakasseras och fängslas.

Lärare annan utsatt grupp

Under 2004 och framförallt under det senaste halvåret har förtrycket hårdnat mot många grupper i delstaten. En av dessa utsatta grupper är lärarna, som vänt sig emot delstatsregeringen.

Det första fallet av förtrycket mot lärarna under året var Jovita Soto Baena som mördades den 27 juli av personer med anknytning till PRI. Den 21 augusti mördades läraren Serafin Garcia Contreras av en grupp PRI:ster beväpnade med påkar.

Den 27 augusti mördades läraren Enedino Jiménez Jiménez och i samband med detta även Jacobo Salazar, aktivt kämpande i fackföreningen Sektion 22. Hans kropp hittades dock först den 10 september.

Den 7 september mördades ytterligare två lärare i regionen El Istmo. Tidningen La Notica menar att dessa två mord med all säkerhet var beställda av den politiska makten⁴.

Ett ytterligare mord utfördes den 15 september på läraren Inocencio Valencia Lorenzo som blev mördad på en amfiteater. Det är ännu okänt vem som utförde mordet.

Den 4 oktober försvann lärarna Elena Aragón Perez och Josefina Perez Luis i Villa Alta. Dessa återfanns döda 9 februari i år. I samtliga dessa fall leder spåren till delstatsregeringen och partiet PRI. Morden på dessa lärare bör ses som en del i ett försök att tysta delstatens oppositionella krafter.

Tidigt på morgonen den 14 september 2004 angrep över 200 poliser från en av delstatens specialstyrkor en protestmanifestation utanför regeringshuset i Oaxaca de Juarez. Manifestationen, som anordnades av indianorganisationen CIPO-RFM, hade som huvudsakligt krav avväpning av alla paramilitära grupper i området.

Manifestationen var i form av ett läger som stod placerat under mer än fem månader utanför regeringshuset. Polisen angrep manifestationen helt utan förvarning, beväpnade med tårgas, chockpistoler och vattenkanoner och grep och fängslade femton personer. Fyra av dessa befinner sig ännu i fängelse.

Bland de gripna var ett flertal minderåriga, däribland Leonor Lopez Alaves (16 år), Kalid Perez Gomez (17 år) och Gildardo Lopez Gomez (17 år).

De femton gripna blev under de följande förhören utsatta for fysisk såväl som psykisk tortyr. De tilläts heller inte att kontakta sin advokat och vägrades även medicinsk tillsyn för sina skador.

Senare samma dag återupptogs manifestationen utanför regeringshuset. Under de följande dagarna fortsatte polisen med våldsamma provokationer och trakasserier som bland annat ledde till att en femårig flicka och hennes mor blev allvarligt skadade i en tårgasattack.

Den 17 september angrep över etthundra maskerade svartklädda poliser manifestationen, beväpnade med batonger, knivar och automatvapen. Elva personer blev skadade och en fördes till sjukhus på grund av sina allvarliga skador.

Ny guvernör som ökar förtrycket

Den 1 december 2004 tillträde den nyliberala PRI:isten Ulises Ruiz som delstatsguvernör med parollen "lag och ordning", vilket har inneburit en upptrappning av våldet riktat mot de sociala rörelserna.

Sedan januari då Ulises Ruiz installerat sig och hunnit sätta sin stämpel på delstatens politik har förtrycket ökat oerhört, framförallt genom fängslandet av delstatens sociala kampar.

Under januari månad har bland annat dessa fängslats: Alejandro Cruz Lopéz, indianorganisationen OIDHO:s frontfigur, Samuel Hernández Morales och Jaquelin Lopéz Almazan från arbetarorganisationen Codep, Abraham Ramirez Vasquez, Juventino Garcia Cruz, Carlos Cruz Moso och Galberto Canseco Carmona (de två sistnämnda släpptes vecka 6) från det anti-nyliberala nätverket Compa och Santiago González Aquino och Miguel González Aquino från den kommunistiska organisationen EPR.

Vecka 6 fängslades även Alejandro Cerezo, Héctor Cerezo, Antonio Cerezo och Pablo Alvarado från fackföreningen Comite Cerezo. Alla dessa sitter inne för falska anklagelser om skadegörelse, misshandel, stöld med mera.

Den 15 januari attackerade säkerhetsstyrkor byn Santiago Xanica då befolkningen arbetade med ett gemensamt byprojekt. Flera personer blev skottskadade varav tre fick dödshotande skador.

Dessa tre var Abraham Ramirez Vasquez, Juventino Garcia Cruz och Noel García Cruz. När deras hälsotillstånd hade stabiliserats blev de satta i fängelse på falska anklagelser.

Under 2005 har den paramilitära gruppen Anorcha Campesina fortsatt att trakassera bybefolkningen i CIPO-RFM:s by San Isidro Luapa.

Under januari och februari månad har paramilitärerna börjat plantera träd på indianernas odlingsmark och tagit till våld mot de som försökt ta bort något av träden. Situationen i byn är labil och många tror att en mer förödande attack inte ligger långt fram i tiden.

Konflikterna ökar inom indianbyarna och minst 10 personer har även blivit mördade i väpnade konflikter mellan PRI och det oppositionella vänsterpartiet PRD. De flesta av de mördade har tillhört PRD och bonde- och indianorganisationer som partiet stöttar.

Mellan den 7-11 februari fängslades även elva människor från byn San Juan Lalana, alla aktiva i oppositionella fackforeningar och bondesammanslutningar tillhörande PRD⁵.

Krafter föder motkrafter

Den 8 februari 2005 träffades 20 olika sociala och politiska organisationer och fackföreningar i Oaxaca i ett unikt försök att samordna en gemensam handlingsplan mot det ökande förtrycket gentemot sociala organisationer i Oaxaca.

Under mötet och det efterföljande forumet på Oaxacas torg dagen efter, sades att det ökande förtrycket är en del i processen för att införa en nyliberal politik och dess megaprojekt i delstaten och har som syfte att splittra och försvåra organiseringen.

Cesar Chavez Garcia från indianorganisationen CIPO-RFM menar att enandet mot förtrycket och mot den nya guvernörens politik är en god plattform for ett fortsatt samarbete mellan de sociala organisationerna i Oaxaca.

I framtiden kommer de kunna föra en gemensam kamp mot den nyliberala politiken och genomförandet av det nyliberala projektet Plan Puebla Panama i delstaten.

Efter det öppna forumet utanför regeringshuset i Oaxaca genomfördes två vägblockader. Den ena organiserades av nätverket Compa och den andra av taxiförarnas fackförening i staden. Dessa upplöstes dock for att undvika konfrontation då kravallpolis och militär anlände till platsen.

Organisationen Compa stannade även kvar utanför regeringshuset över natten for att fortsätta manifestationen dagen efter. Efter manifestationen började organisationen en marsch till Mexico City för att där tillsammans med kamrater som redan befann sig på plats utföra en aktion på stadens centrala torg.

Den 18 februari kommer även en större demonstration att genomföras i Oaxaca mot den ökande förtrycket, trakasserierna mot de sociala organisationerna och fackföreningar samt krav på frisläppande av de politiska fångarna.

Bakom marschen den 18 februari står en stor mängd olika organisationer från ett brett politiskt spektrum med allt från studentföreningar, bondeorganisationer, indianorganisationer, arbetarorganisationer, fackföreningar till delstatens nätverk mot nyliberalism.

Förtrycket fortsätter och paramilitärerna, militärerna och polisen går fria för de mest vidriga brotten, åena sidan. Åandra sidan fängslas sociala kämpar på falska anklagelser och mördas på grund av att de är obekväma for makthavarna.

Trots detta hävdar Villanueva Abrajam från statens generella rättviseombud (PGJE) att "Oaxaca är en stat där ingen kan sätta sig över lagen, inte heller existerar det några privilegier eller dubbla forhållningar gällande straffriheten, de som överträder lagen är de sociala kämparna"⁶.

Med detta förhållningssätt verkar delstatsregeringens taktik vara att kriminalisera rörelsen och öka förtrycket. Denna taktik verkar dock endast ha stärkt de sociala rörelserna i delstaten som nu är mer enade än på mycket länge.

Text och foto:
Patrik Palm och Anton Törnberg, Oaxaca, Mexico.

Motkrafts ommöblering klar.

I december 2004 så märkte man att Motkraft började ommöblera på sin sida.
I dagsläget så verkar det vara klart.
Nu så är Motkraft en fräsch, och aktuell sida som håller måttet.

Apocalypse Now:

		How Mankind is Sleepwalking to the End of the Earth Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow. You don't believe it?
		by Geoffrey Lean
		Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to play special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded. Last week, 200 of the world's leading climate scientists - meeting at Tony Blair's request at the Met Office's new headquarters at Exeter - issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous climate change is taking place, and that time is running out. Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough. A man cycles past the cooling towers of a state-owned steel mill in Beijing. The effects of global warming are already apparent, unexpected problems are looming and there are no 'magic bullets' for tackling the peril, a top forum of climate scientists warned. (AFP/Goh Chai Hin) The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri - chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - told a UN conference in Mauritius that the pollution which causes global warming has reached "dangerous" levels. Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice as catastrophic as the IPCC's worst predictions. And an international task force - also reporting to Tony Blair, and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers - concluded that we could reach "the point of no return" in a decade. Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out - just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem - to warn that unless governments take urgent action there "will be a disaster". But it was last week at the Met Office's futuristic glass headquarters, incongruously set in a dreary industrial estate on the outskirts of Exeter, that it all came together. The conference had been called by the Prime Minister to advise him on how to "avoid dangerous climate change". He needed help in persuading the world to prioritize the issue this year during Britain's presidencies of the EU and the G8 group of economic powers. The conference opened with the Secretary of State for the Environment, Margaret Beckett, warning that "a significant impact" from global warming "is already inevitable". It continued with presentations from top scientists and economists from every continent. These showed that some dangerous climate change was already taking place and that catastrophic events once thought highly improbable were now seen as likely (see panel). Avoiding the worst was technically simple and economically cheap, they said, provided that governments could be persuaded to take immediate action. About halfway through I realized that I had been here before. In the summer of 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts gathered in Vienna for an inquest into the accident at Chernobyl. The head of the Russian delegation showed a film shot from a helicopter, and we suddenly found ourselves gazing down on the red-hot exposed reactor core. It was all, of course, much less dramatic at Exeter. But as paper followed learned paper, once again a group of world authorities were staring at a crisis they had devoted their lives to trying to avoid. I am willing to bet there were few in the room who did not sense their children or grandchildren standing invisibly at their shoulders. The conference formally concluded that climate change was "already occurring" and that "in many cases the risks are more serious than previously thought". But the cautious scientific language scarcely does justice to the sense of the meeting. We learned that glaciers are shrinking around the world. Arctic sea ice has lost almost half its thickness in recent decades. Natural disasters are increasing rapidly around the world. Those caused by the weather - such as droughts, storms, and floods - are rising three times faster than those - such as earthquakes - that are not. We learned that bird populations in the North Sea collapsed last year, after the sand eels on which they feed left its warmer waters - and how the number of scientific papers recording changes in ecosystems due to global warming has escalated from 14 to more than a thousand in five years. Worse, leading scientists warned of catastrophic changes that once they had dismissed as "improbable". The meeting was particularly alarmed by powerful evidence, first reported in The Independent on Sunday last July, that the oceans are slowly turning acid, threatening all marine life. Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey, presented new evidence that the West Antarctic ice sheet is beginning to melt, threatening eventually to raise sea levels by 15ft: 90 per cent of the world's people live near current sea levels. Recalling that the IPCC's last report had called Antarctica "a slumbering giant", he said: "I would say that this is now an awakened giant." Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois, reported that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a "low probability event", was now 45 per cent likely this century, and 70 per cent probable by 2200. If it comes sooner rather than later it will be catastrophic for Britain and northern Europe, giving us a climate like Labrador (which shares our latitude) even as the rest of the world heats up: if it comes later it could be beneficial, moderating the worst of the warming. The experts at Exeter were virtually unanimous about the danger, mirroring the attitude of the climate science community as a whole: humanity is to blame. There were a few skeptics at Exeter, including Andrei Illarionov, an adviser to Russia's President Putin, who last year called the Kyoto Protocol "an interstate Auschwitz". But in truth it is much easier to find skeptics among media pundits in London or neo-cons in Washington than among climate scientists. Even the few contrarian climatalogists publish little research to support their views, concentrating on questioning the work of others. Now a new scientific consensus is emerging - that the warming must be kept below an average increase of two degrees centigrade if catastrophe is to be avoided. This almost certainly involves keeping concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main cause of climate change, below 400 parts per million. Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations exceeding 370ppm and rising, but experts at the conference concluded that we could go briefly above the danger level so long as we brought it down rapidly afterwards. They added that this would involve the world reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 - and rich countries cutting theirs by 30 per cent by 2020. Economists stressed there is little time for delay. If action is put off for a decade, it will need to be twice as radical; if it has to wait 20 years, it will cost between three and seven times as much. The good news is that it can be done with existing technology, by cutting energy waste, expanding the use of renewable sources, growing trees and crops (which remove carbon dioxide from the air) to turn into fuel, capturing the gas before it is released from power stations, and - maybe - using more nuclear energy. The better news is that it would not cost much: one estimate suggested the cost would be about 1 per cent of Europe's GNP spread over 20 years; another suggested it meant postponing an expected fivefold increase in world wealth by just two years. Many experts believe combating global warming would increase prosperity, by bringing in new technologies. The big question is whether governments will act. President Bush's opposition to international action remains the greatest obstacle. Tony Blair, by almost universal agreement, remains the leader with the best chance of persuading him to change his mind. But so far the Prime Minister has been more influenced by the President than the other way round. He appears to be moving away from fighting for the pollution reductions needed in favor of agreeing on a vague pledge to bring in new technologies sometime in the future. By then it will be too late. And our children and grandchildren will wonder - as we do in surveying, for example, the drift into the First World War - "how on earth could they be so blind?" WATER WARS What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water resources as populations grow and rains fail. How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people than at present are expected to live in countries where water is scarce in the future, and global warming will make it worse. How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil. DISAPPEARING NATIONS What could happen? Low-lying island such as the Maldives and Tuvalu - with highest points only a few feet above sea-level - will disappear off the face of the Earth. How would this come about? As the world heats up, sea levels are rising, partly because glaciers are melting, and partly because the water in the oceans expands as it gets warmer. How likely is it? Inevitable. Even if global warming stopped today, the seas would continue to rise for centuries. Some small islands have already sunk for ever. A year ago, Tuvalu was briefly submerged. FLOODING What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay, many other cities and vast areas of countries from Britain to Bangladesh disappear under tens of feet of water, as the seas rise dramatically. How would this come about? Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica melt. The Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more than 20ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft. How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely, but this year reported that the melting of both ice caps had begun. It will take hundreds of years, however, for the seas to rise that much. UNINHABITABLE EARTH What could happen? Global warming escalates to the point where the world's whole climate abruptly switches, turning it permanently into a much hotter and less hospitable planet. How would this come about? A process involving "positive feedback" causes the warming to fuel itself, until it reaches a point that finally tips the climate pattern over. How likely is it? Abrupt flips have happened in the prehistoric past. Scientists believe this is unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future, but increasingly they are refusing to rule it out. RAINFOREST FIRES What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such as those in the Amazon, go up in flames, destroying the world's richest wildlife habitats and releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to speed global warming. How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted in 1999 that much of the Amazon will dry out and die within 50 years, making it ready for sparks - from humans or lightning - to set it ablaze. How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to be right. Already there have been massive forest fires in Borneo and Amazonia, casting palls of highly polluting smoke over vast areas. THE BIG FREEZE What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get much colder because the Gulf Stream, which provides as much heat as the sun in winter, fails. How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends fresh water into the North Atlantic. The less salty water fails to generate the underwater current which the Gulf Stream needs. How likely is it? About evens for a Gulf Steam failure this century, said scientists last week. STARVATION What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa, for example, as rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland turns to desert, people flee in their millions in search of food. How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease by up to 60 per cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in southern Africa this century. By some estimates, Zambia could lose almost all its farms. How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles both global warming and Africa's decline. Scientists agree that droughts will increase in a warmer world. ACID OCEANS What could happen? The seas will gradually turn more and more acid. Coral reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all life depends, will die off. Much of the life of the oceans will become extinct. How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed half the carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming, so far emitted by humanity. This forms dilute carbonic acid, which attacks corals and shells. How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists warn that the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented for 20 million years. Some predict that the world's coral reefs will die within 35 years. DISEASE What could happen? Malaria - which kills two million people worldwide every year - reaches Britain with foreign travelers, gets picked up by British mosquitos and becomes endemic in the warmer climate. How would this come about? Four of our 40 mosquito species can carry the disease, and hundreds of travelers return with it annually. The insects breed faster, and feed more, in warmer temperatures. How likely is it? A Department of Health study has suggested it may happen by 2050: the Environment Agency has mentioned 2020. Some experts say it is miraculous that it has not happened already. HURRICANES What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms proliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas. Last September's repeated battering of Florida and the Caribbean may be just a foretaste of what is to come, say scientists. How would this come about? The storms gather their energy from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur and threaten areas where at present the seas are too cool for such weather. How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether storms will get more frequent and whether the process has already begun. Källa: The independent.

Lab monkeys 'scream with fear' in tests

Sandra Laville Tuesday February 8, 2005 The Guardian Secret documents describing how some monkeys can scream in misery, fear and anger during experiments were produced in the high court yesterday as evidence that the laws intended to protect laboratory animals are being flouted. Excerpts from Cambridge University internal papers - one of several sites where primate research is carried out - give laboratory technicians and scientists advice on how to deal with problems during and after experiments. Presented in court by the British Union for the Abolition of Vivisection (BUAV), they describe occasions when primates are "screaming, trying to get out of the box, defecating", and state: "This is an angry animal." Scientists and technicians are advised in the documents to "punish" the bad habits of the monkeys, stating that these bad habits include the normal self-grooming. Richard Drabble QC, for the BUAV, told the high court yesterday that the documents contradict the general public perception that animals are well cared for and protected under the Animals (Scientific Procedures) Act 1986. Making an application for judicial review of the legality of lab practices, he also alleged that brain-damaged monkeys at Cambridge were not provided with the 24-hour veterinary care which the government's own guidance states is necessary. David Thomas, the solicitor for BUAV, said: "Cambridge staff work 9-5pm, so animals who had just been brain damaged were left overnight without veterinary attention. "Some were found to be dead in the morning, some were found to be in a worse condition. Yet there is an obligation of licence holders to keep suffering to a minimum. The whole system is very secretive and the public does not get to see what is really going on." The court challenge comes after the government's chief inspector of animals dismissed the findings of a 10-month undercover investigation by BUAV into three research programmes at Cambridge in 1998. BUAV claimed they discovered monkeys which had the tops of their heads sawn off in order for a stroke to be induced and were then left for 15 hours without veterinary attention. But the court heard that after reviewing the licence to Cambridge for the three programmes, and some of the other 4,000 testing licences granted in England and Wales, the chief inspector of animals gave a clean bill of health to all establishments. For the home secretary, Jonathan Swift said the application for a judicial review should be dismissed. He said the chief inspector of animals had concluded that the decisions taken each time the licences were granted had been sound and the home secretary had accepted these findings. Mr Swift said the granting of licences was case-specific and highly fact-sensitive. The home secretary had to "weigh the likely adverse effects on the animals concerned against the benefit likely to accrue as a result of the programme". The three programmes Cambridge was carrying out involved research into degenerative brain diseases such as Parkinson's and Alzheimer's.

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200.000 jobb flyttas.

200.000 jobb kan komma att flytta utomlands inom 5 år, enligt Svenskt Näringsliv.
Bara i Skåne rör det sig om 30.000 personer, som kan bli arbetslösa inom 5 år, enligt en enkät som Svenskt Näringsliv låtit svenska företag deltaga i.

Jönköping, som toppar den makabra listan, kommer ifall företagarna gör handling av ord att tappa 34% av alla jobb. Siffran i hela Sverige ligger runt 20%. Det skulle bli 200.000 nya arbetslösa, utöver alla de som är arbetslösa nu. Inklusive alla som går i olika meningslösa program för att dölja den verkliga arbetslösheten.

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